IHSG - Elliot Wave
IHSG - Elliot Wave
Elliot Wave Saat Bull MarketElliot wave ditemukan oleh Ralph Nellson Elliot, manusia genius ini melihat pergerakan chart di bursa saham yang terlihat tidak menentu sebenarnya mempunyai suatu siklus gelombang yang dikenal dengan Elliot Wave.
Elliot melihat baik pergerakan naik atau turun selalu mempunyai pattern tertentu, jadi dia menyatakan bahwa di bursa saham pergerakan harga akan selalu mempunyai pola yang berulang ulang dan dia menyebutnya sebagai "wave".
Mr Elliot melihat trending market mempunyai pergerakan dengan gelombang pattern tertentu yang disebut 5-3 wave pattern. 5 wave pattern disebut impulsive waves dan 3 wave yang terakhir disebut corrective wave, untuk jelasnya silahkan lihat chart Elliot Wave secara teoritikal.
Makna setiap wave berdasarkan psikologi para trader sebagai berikut :
Wave 1 The stock makes its initial move upwards. This is usually caused by a relatively small number of people that all of the sudden (for a variety of reasons real or imagined) feel that the price of the stock is cheap so it’s a perfect time to buy. This causes the price to rise.
Wave 2 At this point enough people who were in the original wave consider the stock overvalued and take profits. This causes the stock to go down. However, the stock will not make it to its previous lows before the stock is considered a bargain again.
Wave 3 This is usually the longest and strongest wave. The stock has caught the attention of the mass public. More people find about the stock and want to buy it. This causes the stock’s price to go higher and higher. This wave usually exceeds the high created at the end of wave 1.
Wave 4 People take profits because the stock is considered expensive again. This wave tends to be weak because there are usually more people that are still bullish on the stock and are waiting to “buy on the dips”.
Wave 5 This is the point that most people get on the stock, and is most driven by hysteria. You usually start seeing the CEO of the company on the front page of major magazines as the Person of the Year. People start coming with ridiculous reasons to buy the stock and try to choke you if when you disagree with them. This is when the stock becomes the most overpriced. Contrarians start shorting the stock which starts the ABC pattern.
Wave 2 At this point enough people who were in the original wave consider the stock overvalued and take profits. This causes the stock to go down. However, the stock will not make it to its previous lows before the stock is considered a bargain again.
Wave 3 This is usually the longest and strongest wave. The stock has caught the attention of the mass public. More people find about the stock and want to buy it. This causes the stock’s price to go higher and higher. This wave usually exceeds the high created at the end of wave 1.
Wave 4 People take profits because the stock is considered expensive again. This wave tends to be weak because there are usually more people that are still bullish on the stock and are waiting to “buy on the dips”.
Wave 5 This is the point that most people get on the stock, and is most driven by hysteria. You usually start seeing the CEO of the company on the front page of major magazines as the Person of the Year. People start coming with ridiculous reasons to buy the stock and try to choke you if when you disagree with them. This is when the stock becomes the most overpriced. Contrarians start shorting the stock which starts the ABC pattern.
ABC Corecction
Kelima gelombang diakhiri dengan fase koreksi yang terdiri dari 3 gelombang dan ini disebut gelombang ABC.
Jadi untuk Bull Market ada 5 gelombang naik dan 3 gelombang koreksi.
Bagaimana jika terjadi Bear Market? ya tetap sama yakni 5-3 pattern, dimana 5 gelombang penurunan dan 3 gelombang koreksi dan untuk jelasnya silahkan lihat chat dibawah ini .
Elliot Wave Saat Bear MarketDemikian kira kira Elliot Wave pada IHSG dan chart yang saya buat merupakan Elliot Wave gelombang besar dan terbentuknya terdiri dari Elliot wave gelombang kecil, untuk jelasnya silahkan lihat chart dibawah ini.
Elliot Wave terdiri dari Gelombang besar dan gelombang kecilSemoga bermanfaat dan silahkan untuk saling sharing analisa teknikal dengan Elliot Wave ini, dan kelihatannya sangat sederhana tetapi jika ditilik secara detail pasti banyak menimbulkan perdebatan, karena pandangan yang berbeda antara analis yang satu dengan analis yang lain mengenai perhitungan wave. Perbedaan sih boleh boleh saja tetapi saya harap tetap kita saling menghormati satu sama lain demi kemajuan bersama, ok!
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